Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0227
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 18:54:23

ACUS11 KWNS 021854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021853=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-022000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...far Northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern
Kansas...southern Missouri...and northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021853Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail risk will continue over the next
couple of hours. Watch issuance unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of elevated thunderstorms continues to
move northeastward across portions of far northeastern Oklahoma and
northern Arkansas into far southeastern Kansas and southern
Missouri. A few cells have posed a brief severe hail risk. Storms
are generally located along a gradient of MUCAPE around 500-1000
J/kg. Objective analysis shows instability slowly increasing to the
north in the last hour. Sounding analysis from RAP forecast
soundings across northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas reveal
a stable ground layer with instability aloft largely located above
850 mb. VAD profiles from INX and SGX show favorable deep layer
shear around 70 kts. Given the shear and thermodynamic profiles,
these storms will likely remain elevated, supporting a risk of
severe hail up to 1-1.5 inch before moving into a cooler and drier
air mass to the north. As such, watch issuance is unlikely needed.

...Thornton/Thompson.. 03/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8GUYmnlHNN_kSL6xm6ll5rkETxmQOD44axhb6Xum02kBpGmQMrm7cddlJQdRhLoo8_SLMp6kg=
Z-uuzw7GiLSBtEhgyw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36829619 37139596 37549512 37719445 37739400 37709334
            37549277 37249188 37139160 36849139 36079162 35749205
            35669253 36439391 36389498 36249582 36369626 36369626
            36829619=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.