Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 17:35:26 ACUS02 KWNS 021735 SWODY2 SPC AC 021734 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible on Friday across parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ....Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the AR/OK border into LA early Friday morning. This wave is expected to eject quickly northeastward throughout the day, reaching the lower OH Valley by Friday afternoon and the Upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Very strong mid to upper flow will accompany this system, with over 100 kt at 500-mb throughout its southern periphery. Strong mass response will also foster a strong and broad low-level jet, with a large area of 60+ kt at 850mb preceding the wave from the Southeast across the TN Valley into the Mid/Upper OH Valley. A deepening surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, as an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the Southeast States and TN Valley. A broad warm sector characterized by 60s dewpoints will initially be in place ahead of this low and associated front. Severe thunderstorms are anticipated along this front as it moves eastward, with the highest severe potential anticipated from middle TN into central KY during the afternoon. ....OH and TN Valleys... The surface low will likely be centered near southeast MO/northeast AR early Friday morning, before then moving quickly northeastward through the Lower OH Valley while occluding. This will lead to a narrowing of the warm sector with eastern extent. Even so, at least low 60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the low and attendant cold front from western TN/KY through middle TN and central KY. Heating ahead of the line will be modest, but some limited buoyancy is still expected to develop, particularly during the afternoon across middle TN and central KY. Strong forcing for ascent is expected, with vigorous large-scale ascent augmented by ascent along the front and surface low. This buoyancy and ascent will be colocated with robust wind fields. These environmental conditions are expected to support thunderstorms capable of strong gusts, and potentially a few tornadoes. A linear mode looks most probable, although some guidance has begun to indicate the potential for a few discrete storms ahead of the line. As of now, the discrete scenario has not been given too much weight, due to limited surface-based potential ahead of the line. That being said, any discrete storms that mature would likely be supercellular. ....Southeast... Instability will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, with the main forcing for ascent displaced northwest of the region. Even so, robust wind fields and moderate low-level moisture are expected to support severe thunderstorms along a cold front moving quickly eastward across the region. Primary threat is damaging wind gusts, although a tornado or two is also possible. ...Mosier.. 03/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .