Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0226
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 16:55:23

ACUS11 KWNS 021655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021655=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-021930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021655Z - 021930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to increase in a corridor
roughly from near Abilene to Gainesville through early afternoon,
with damaging hail the most likely threat. Substantial hail damage
may occur.

DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front extends from a developing low
over southwest TX east/northeastward into north TX, with substantial
boundary-layer moisture streaming north toward the front. Isolated
storms have formed over Eastland County, and additional cells are
likely to develop as theta-e advection increases along the boundary.
Visible imagery indicates plentiful heating will occur ahead of the
low and across western parts of the front, which will steepen lapse
rates and aid updraft strength and hail potential.

Hodographs will become quite elongated today, with deep-layer shear
averaging 60-70 kt. Combined with the increasing moisture, this
should aid cells capable of very large damaging hail. One or more
storms may produce large amounts of significant hail. Storms will
move quickly northeast toward the Red River and may cross into OK
later today.

...Jewell/Thompson.. 03/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5-6HoEW_xk-vyWohqX2wyf2ltEi3QPh_fS82kSFW5sYTGsq9HSB1pMb9nt3emGdhR-kwfunt3=
h-vrAA4AIYTdxZb-XU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   31979871 31909949 31890020 32200033 32520003 32979895
            33709782 33859742 33979683 33869652 33559633 32619747
            32419783 31979871=20


=3D =3D =3D
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