Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0225
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 13:24:21

ACUS11 KWNS 021324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021323=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-021600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021323Z - 021600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development, potentially
supercells capable of producing sizable hail, appears possible as
early as 9-11 AM.  It is not certain a severe weather watch will be
needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture return is ongoing on southerly
low-level flow across much of the southern Great Plains.  This
includes areas as far north as southeastern Oklahoma, above a
shallow near-surface stable layer, to the cool side of a surface
frontal zone.  Based on forecast soundings (and the 12Z sounding
from Norman), this may be contributing to CAPE on the order of
1000-2000 J/kg, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates associated with
a plume of elevated mixed-layer air.

Despite inhibition associated with the elevated mixed layer,
deepening convective development is already evident in satellite
imagery near and west through north of the McAlester vicinity.=20
Various model guidance, including the Rapid Refresh and High
Resolution Ensemble output, suggest that forcing for ascent, likely
driven by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection beneath difluent
upper flow, may support the initiation of increasing thunderstorm
development as early as 15-17Z.

With forecast hodographs within the elevated potential inflow layer
forecast to enlarge somewhat, and become clockwise curved, in the
presence of strong cloud-bearing layer shear, the environment
appears conducive to supercells capable of producing large hail.

...Kerr/Edwards.. 03/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7F5A6VvTDLhQ3wpvjK3lbbwkhWCng-TgdCzDAJqytDxNrY-dKI8FhIiR3FzzJGAZ8Wr-TSiwX=
PfHET6jJ1jUVqU62Gk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35729654 35889525 35409434 34619514 34459601 34359720
            35079712 35729654=20


=3D =3D =3D
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