Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0224
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 10:11:49

ACUS11 KWNS 021011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021011=20
TXZ000-021245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Hill Country and Edwards Plateau
into coastal plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021011Z - 021245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
development may persist into mid morning, particularly across parts
of the Hill Country into Edwards Plateau vicinity.  While it is not
clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, the most vigorous
cells may continue to occasionally be accompanied by large hail.

DISCUSSION...Warm air and moisture advection centered in a layer
around 700 mb, and focused near the northern periphery of warmer and
more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, currently extending
in a corridor from near the Rio Grande River (south of Del Rio)
east-northeastward toward areas west of Houston, has maintained
vigorous convective development.  This has generally been limited to
isolated to scattered storms, but may persist with forcing perhaps
shifting westward/northwestward through 14-15Z, as the strong
upstream short wave trough and embedded mid-level low continue to
dig across the Southwestern international border area.

While CAPE for these elevated parcels is probably generally not as
large as suggested by the objective analysis, MRMS data indicate
that the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear in the
cloud-bearing layer have been supporting at least marginally severe
hail.  This probably will continue as long as thunderstorm
development is maintained.

The strongest current cell, now developing east-northeastward away
from the San Antonio vicinity, aided by the strong
west-southwesterly mean flow, could begin to acquire inflow of
better low-level moisture with larger CAPE during the next hour or
two.  However, warming aloft along this track might also tend to
increase the mid-level inhibition.  So the longevity of this storm
remains unclear.

...Kerr/Edwards.. 03/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7EH-6cmPwPq6P-_vdRkQDPPYCuQibWx1BqJMu5WmAmXmB1KN3H54cDlONKrAO9gL8GDnq6L4W=
J1Ldgp8S24goVd379k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31029980 30629792 30839619 30059580 29499766 29229902
            30080028 30600039 31029980=20


=3D =3D =3D
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