Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 08:32:11

AWUS01 KWNH 020832
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-021430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020830Z - 021430Z

SUMMARY...Redeveloping rounds of showers and thunderstorms this
morning may result in some additional spotty instances of flash
flooding given very moist to saturated soil conditions.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows pockets of showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping across areas of eastern AR and through
northern MS as a nose of warm/moist air advances northeast up and
over a well-defined outflow boundary oriented west to east from
far southern AR through central MS and northern AL.

There is an axis of fairly unstable air pooling over this boundary
with MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and this elevated
instability coupled with isentropic ascent and some right-entrance
region jet dynamics should facilitate these additional rounds of
convection going through the morning hours. Although the activity
should be relatively disorganized.

PWs near or just a bit above 1.5 inches coupled with the available
instability should favor heavy rainfall rates that may reach on
the order of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour. These rates coupled with at
least some occasional repeating cell activity may yield some
additional isolated totals by mid-morning of 2 to 2.5 inches.

Since the antecedent conditions are now quite moist if not locally
saturated, these additional rains may result in at least some
additional localized flash flooding concerns.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-GPfxVz_CGxMvdidJzrK8UCRHKqjg__HsSJSsj7YaPof6lExE2ZQBZE4MuIAFLYnZBmi=
k2LKpAkhue5ABOHmde-9Pbc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35328715 35238590 34708566 34308618 33938763=20
            33778944 33659120 33689263 34089285 34449259=20
            34889112 35198905=20

=3D =3D =3D
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