Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0222
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 04:22:18

ACUS11 KWNS 020422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020421=20
TXZ000-020615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020421Z - 020615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms -- capable of producing very large
hail -- will be possible over the next few hours across parts of
South Texas.  The very isolated nature of the expected convection
may preclude the need for WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that a large/lone supercell has
developed over Zavala County in South Texas, and is moving into
southwestern Frio County at this time.  The storm is occurring
within a moderately unstable environment, where weak low-level flow
but strong southwesterlies aloft are providing sufficient shear for
this storm to acquire updraft rotation.  Latest MRMS MESH continues
to show very large hail with this storm, as it moves eastward.=20
Though any more than very isolated/additional development appears
unlikely, any storm across this area will be capable of producing
very large/destructive hail, and possibly locally damaging wind
gusts.

...Goss/Guyer.. 03/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6VjxhWPjsLsXzQvytjqbAvcAOYgTfJ_SCSfvrBtZdOQVFvFxAPT9yGcNFCYwZJp88SYSINnSy=
qoAuEsHiPz3TzE07Yo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28669945 29019951 29989858 30389778 30009685 29249691
            28639822 28669945=20


=3D =3D =3D
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