Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 01:02:47 ACUS01 KWNS 020102 SWODY1 SPC AC 020101 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... A focused corridor of severe potential remains in place through tonight from the Arklatex into the Tennessee Valley. Scattered large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out. ....Synopsis... Scattered strong to potentially severe storms continue across portions of the MS Valley within a buoyant warm-air advection regime ahead of an approaching 60 kt 500 mb speed max, currently located over western OK. Convection should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the evening as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies. Though dynamic forcing is not overly robust (given the lack of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough), adequate buoyancy and increasing low-level shear with a strengthening low-level jet should promote several hours of strong to severe storm potential from AR into the TN Valley through tonight, with elevated (hail producing) storms possible as far east as the Carolina Piedmont. ....Texas to the TN/OH Valleys through tonight... Relatively robust thunderstorms continue to intensify from the Arklatex into OH along a diffuse cold front, preceded by 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F across the OH Valley to near 70 F in northern LA are contributing to around 500 J/kg farther north, to about 2000 J/kg in TX. A broad 30 kt low-level jet already overspreads portions of the Lower MS Valley to the OH river, overspread by 50+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow, supporting 40+ kt effective bulk shear from TX to KY. The steeper lapse rates and shear will promote a large hail/damaging gust threat with any storm that can remain sustained through the evening. The greatest threat for severe storms remains across the Lower MS Valley, where discrete transient supercells have been occurring just behind a southward sagging outflow boundary. As the low-level jet intensifies through the evening, enlargement of hodographs should ensue, with strong enough low-level shear supporting the risk of very large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes, particularly with any storms that can get ahead of the outflow boundary. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out with any of the more dominant, discrete supercells that can traverse the low-level jet axis tonight. Scattered strong storms may persist to 12Z Thursday across portions of North Carolina, with elevated instability advecting ahead of the storms. As such, a couple instances of severe hail are possible. Farther to the southwest across TX, deep-layer ascent should increase ahead of a cold front given the rapid approach of a pronounced mid-level trough. Convective initiation may occur across portions of central TX before 12Z Thursday, supporting an isolated large hail/damaging gust threat. ...Squitieri.. 03/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .