Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0217
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 01 2023 23:27:45

ACUS11 KWNS 012327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012327=20
TXZ000-020130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...Central/Northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012327Z - 020130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional Risk of severe thunderstorms exists this
evening from central into northeast Texas.

DISCUSSION...Surface front has stalled across TX early this evening,
currently extending from Paris-Terrell-LLano. Despite extensive
cloudiness, boundary-layer heating has contributed to steeper
low-level lapse rates across south-central TX. This has sufficiently
weakened the cap along the boundary such that a lone thunderstorm
has recently evolved over Burnet County. While 12z model guidance
suggests a subtle mid-level speed max may be ejecting across this
region at this time, it's not apparent any meaningful short wave is
associated with this feature. Additionally, stronger low-level warm
advection is focused from the Arklatex downstream into the mid South
region where more concentrated convection is currently noted.
Despite modest buoyancy, forecast soundings suggest updrafts may
continue to struggle due to capping.

...Darrow/Guyer.. 03/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!94fADpjXczCre0X_Xw1sm-KrgUkvb9RtNQm7pPQU5popgDBhDgs3WPryEhGX6AxlBrNUTO-ox=
gJik1vf20KlPJg45zo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30599846 31669767 33209584 32359510 30429776 30599846=20


=3D =3D =3D
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