Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0215
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 01 2023 20:22:44

ACUS11 KWNS 012022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012022=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...Arklatex...South/Central Arkansas...Northern
Mississippi...and western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 012022Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase in
coverage by the afternoon/evening. More discrete cells may pose risk
of large hail and a few tornadoes. Tornado Watch likely needed by
21-22z.

DISCUSSION...Current surface objective analysis and data from 18z
soundings at SHV and LZK show some progress made in eroding CIN
across the corridor from Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi.
However, daytime heating is well underway with surface obs showing
temperatures across southern Louisiana and Mississippi approaching
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Moisture is in place with mid to upper
60s dew points into central Arkansas and Tennessee. Trends within
CAM guidance have been for development of more discrete cells
initially across the Arklatex region by 21-23z, where the cap has
been weakening within the last couple of hours. Once storms develop,
initial discrete cells will be capable of large hail, given deep
layer shear profiles of 60-65 kts. Any cells that can become surface
based near the AR/LA border will support some risk for tornadoes
given adequate low level shear. As the low level jet gradually
strengthens late afternoon/evening, elongating shear profiles and
increasing 0-1 km shear should support a greater risk for tornadoes.
A Tornado Watch is likely by 21-22z.

...Thornton/Gleason.. 03/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9939DHcoRWhZDe2rjqpBuV3O9M_mQ_xV_1ZgLwSiGVlbrCcT9XT1gSdKqslSro9u2Qo1py_ui=
iPSEWuRyPTn9LQWDFc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34149458 34509434 34849311 34929245 35119181 35399067
            35518946 35518847 35068818 34228838 33958868 33539063
            33159273 33049352 33099421 33169470 33449477 33799475
            34149458=20


=3D =3D =3D
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