Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0213
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 01 2023 13:07:13

ACUS11 KWNS 011307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011306=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-011500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Areas affected...parts of north central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011306Z - 011500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms posing at least some
risk for severe hail are possible this morning across across north
central Texas.  It remains unclear whether a severe weather watch
will be needed in the near term, but trends will continue to be
monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Mid/upper flow is strong, and strengthening, but
remains broadly anticyclonic across the much of the southern Great
Plains, toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard, around the northern
periphery of subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean.=20
However, a number of subtle perturbations are progressing through
this regime, and the passage of one may be contributing to ongoing
thunderstorm development near the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.

Based on comparison of Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, and
the 12Z observed sounding from FTW, it remains unclear whether
ongoing activity has been supported by destabilization associated
with a more elevated moisture return, or deepening lower-level
moisture return and forcing through a lingering capping layer
centered near or above the 850 mb level.  Guidance suggests that
with time, it may be closer to the latter, in which case storm
inflow may become characterized by sizable CAPE, beneath steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates.=20

As long as deep convection is maintained, and further warming aloft
does not tend to suppress the thunderstorm development, stronger
storms may eventually become capable of producing severe hail, in
the presence of strong deep-layer shear.

...Kerr/Edwards.. 03/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5h_sEPqiTTXK1_5F1Ne9hZU8ILcR0ObWD3F7eN-u0yI1ZmT2sYRnoKmzgRLELA3WgxZ5HFEy5=
az1oupqJnbEg1OFxJw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32439937 33519764 33819464 32369554 31749766 31699871
            32439937=20


=3D =3D =3D
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