Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 01 2023 09:50:13

ACUS48 KWNS 010950
SWOD48
SPC AC 010948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....D4/Saturday: Northern Florida Peninsula...
Modest buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear may support a strong
storm or two across parts of the northern FL Peninsula on Saturday,
as a cold front moves into the region. However, generally weak
large-scale ascent and rather warm midlevel temperatures are
currently expected to limit the coverage and magnitude of the severe
threat.

....D5/Sunday - D6/Monday...
Generally dry/stable conditions across most of the CONUS are
expected to limit any severe-thunderstorm threat on Sunday. Some
low-level moisture may begin returning into parts of the Southeast
and southern Plains on Monday, but available instability is expected
to remain weak, limiting severe-thunderstorm potential.

....D7/Tuesday - D8/Wednesday...
Predictability regarding the mid/upper-level pattern begins to wane
by Tuesday, though continued low-level moisture return into parts of
the southern Plains and Southeast may eventually yield sufficient
instability to support organized thunderstorm development. However,
with little indication of any stronger synoptic-scale systems at
this range, and some signal for cold high pressure to move into much
of the CONUS by Wednesday, severe-thunderstorm potential may remain
relatively limited through midweek.

...Dean.. 03/01/2023

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