Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 01 2023 08:30:39 ACUS03 KWNS 010830 SWODY3 SPC AC 010829 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible on Friday across parts of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley. ....Southeast into the Ohio Valley... A negatively tilted upper-level trough and attendant cyclone are forecast to move quickly from the Ozark Plateau toward the lower Great Lakes on Friday. A cold front will move across much of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys. Very strong deep-layer flow/shear will overspread a relatively moist and at least weakly unstable environment from the Southeast into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential. A strongly forced convective line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across central/eastern MS into western TN, with a threat of at least locally damaging wind and brief, line-embedded tornadoes. This line will progress across parts of middle/eastern TN into parts of the OH Valley, in conjunction with the strongest forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Instability will become increasingly scant with northeastward extent, but any steepening of low-level lapse rates that can occur ahead of the line will help to maintain a threat of damaging gusts and perhaps a line-embedded tornado or two, given very strong low-level flow/shear that will persist along/ahead of the surface low track. Farther south into parts of AL/GA and eventually the Carolinas, convective evolution is more uncertain. With the strongest forcing moving north of this region, some weakening of the convective line is possible, though somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization (compared to areas farther north) may sustain sufficiently robust convection to maintain a threat of damaging wind and brief tornadoes through the afternoon into the evening, as convection spreads into the Carolinas. Some adjustments to the large Slight Risk will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks, depending on the timing of the ejecting shortwave trough and evolution of antecedent upstream convection during the Day 1-2 periods. ...Dean.. 03/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .