Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 28 2023 19:40:48

ACUS01 KWNS 281940
SWODY1
SPC AC 281938

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Valid 282000Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through early Wednesday
morning.

....20Z Update...

Forecast outlined in the previous discussion (appended below)
remains valid and no changes are needed.

...Mosier.. 02/28/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023/

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Cold mid-level temperatures and some steepening of lapse rates aloft
associated with an upper trough digging over the West Coast may
support isolated lightning flashes with low-topped convection
occurring across parts of OR, northern/central CA, and the northern
Great Basin through tonight. Meager instability should keep overall
thunderstorm coverage quite sparse.

A separate shortwave trough will advance northeastward today over
the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Low-level
moisture is expected to remain quite limited over these regions.
But, very cold mid-level temperatures and some diurnal heating may
support weak surface-based instability and potential for isolated
thunderstorms across parts of SD and vicinity, mainly this afternoon
and early evening.

Farther south, additional thunderstorm development may occur over
parts of central TX near the end of the period (around 09-12Z),
associated with gradually increasing low-level moisture/lift and
glancing large-scale ascent. MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear will
conditionally support some threat for hail with this elevated
convection. However, most guidance continues to suggest that the
appreciable hail risk should occur after 12Z Wednesday morning.

$$

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