Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 28 2023 09:58:13

ACUS48 KWNS 280958
SWOD48
SPC AC 280956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....D4/Friday: Southeast...TN/OH Valleys...Carolinas...
An intense cyclone is forecast to move northeastward from the Ozark
Region toward the lower Great Lakes through the day on Friday. In
conjunction with the cyclone, modest low-level moisture will spread
as far north as the OH Valley, with richer moisture expected farther
south into parts of the Southeast/Carolinas. Relatively warm
midlevel temperatures and weak lapse rates will tend to limit
buoyancy across the warm sector, but very strong deep-layer
flow/shear will support a damaging-wind and/or tornado threat with
any robust convection along/ahead of the cold front.

....D5/Saturday: Florida Peninsula...
A cold front is expected to move southward into the northern FL
Peninsula on Saturday, as the cyclone and associated mid/upper-level
trough move quickly offshore away from the region. Modest buoyancy
and deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two near the
front, though limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep the
severe-thunderstorm threat low.

....D6/Sunday - D8/Tuesday...
Predictability begins to wane by late in the extended period, though
guidance is in general agreement depicting dry/stable conditions
across most of the CONUS on Sunday and Monday, resulting in a low
severe-thunderstorm threat. Some moisture could return by late
Monday into Tuesday across the southern Plains and Southeast, though
current guidance generally suggests that the severe-thunderstorm
threat will remain low into the middle of next week.

...Dean.. 02/28/2023

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