Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 28 2023 07:20:54

FOUS30 KWBC 280720
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 28 2023 - 12Z Wed Mar 01 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.=20=20

Southern California...
On Tuesday night, as an upper low drops southward from western WA
to the northern CA/NV border, low-level inflow (at 850 hPa) picks
up out of the Pacific at ~45 kts and precipitable water values
rise towards 0.75".  CAPE is expected to rise into the 100-200
J/kg range.  The ingredients above indicate the potential for
hourly rain totals up to ~0.4", which is hinted at within the 00z
HREF probabilities of 0.5", which are towards 30% within the
Peninsular and eastern Transverse Ranges of southern CA.  Another
complication from an excessive rainfall standpoint is the low snow
levels expected with this system -- no higher than 4500 feet.  The
chance of excessive rainfall, which would be primarily for burn
scars, is non-zero but probably still below 5% on a neighborhood
basis.  Any further increase in moisture, instability, or
snow/freezing levels could lead to an upgrade to a Marginal Risk
for southernmost California.

Roth


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8aqrvdfFRxpnL08GseiCswl-935cASY-fJ7cy_SgExNB=
3X5SybG3ewpP3Tucb-PIxaVJ6g_fKRG-BI5LzuW3AAJ7FeY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8aqrvdfFRxpnL08GseiCswl-935cASY-fJ7cy_SgExNB=
3X5SybG3ewpP3Tucb-PIxaVJ6g_fKRG-BI5LzuW3TaJTTW0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8aqrvdfFRxpnL08GseiCswl-935cASY-fJ7cy_SgExNB=
3X5SybG3ewpP3Tucb-PIxaVJ6g_fKRG-BI5LzuW3fyn7f9o$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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