Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 28 2023 05:41:11

ACUS01 KWNS 280541
SWODY1
SPC AC 280539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

....Discussion...

Low amplitude, quasi-zonal flow will envelop much of the CONUS east
of the Rockies today. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough will
deepen over the western U.S. as an intense upper-level jet dives
southward near the Pacific coast. Cold temperatures aloft will aid
in the development of weak instability amid forcing aided by the
strong jet streak nearing the Pacific Coast, and isolated
thunderstorm will be possible from coastal OR into northern CA.

A stalled frontal boundary will become diffuse over the southeastern
U.S., while surface high pressure develops from the Midwest to the
Northeast. Boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the Gulf
Coast vicinity until later in the period when weak low pressure
develops over the Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport
moisture northward across central/eastern TX into the Mid-South this
evening into early Wednesday morning. Modest warm advection amid
weak instability and strong capping will preclude thunderstorm
activity.

...Leitman/Flournoy.. 02/28/2023

$$

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