Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 28 2023 00:49:46

ACUS01 KWNS 280049
SWODY1
SPC AC 280048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
An isolated strong storm remains possible across the central
Appalachians into the evening hours.

....Synopsis...
A 990 mb surface low over northeast OH should continue to track
toward the Hudson Valley in tandem with a mid-level trough.
Deep-layer ascent will continue to lift marginally buoyant air and
promote isolated thunderstorm development along/east of the
Appalachians through tonight. However, surface-based buoyancy should
generally lag to the west of the Appalachians. As such, a stronger
thunderstorm may still pose a brief severe threat for an hour or so
past 00Z, with general thunderstorms expected for the rest of the
period.

....Central Appalachians...
A few stronger thunderstorms persist along the PA/WV border.
Nonetheless, surface-based buoyancy is waning across the region,
with surface dewpoints dropping below 40 F downstream. A damaging
gust/brief tornado could occur just after 00Z. Thereafter though,
storms should diminish in intensity as they ingest a colder, more
stable airmass.

...Squitieri.. 02/28/2023

$$

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