Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0206
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 27 2023 18:00:15

ACUS11 KWNS 271800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271759=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-271930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southwestern into central Ohio and far
north-central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271759Z - 271930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in tornado and damaging wind potential is
possible for parts of southwestern into central Ohio. A watch will
be considered this afternoon for parts of this region.

DISCUSSION...Low-topped, cellular convection continues across parts
of Indiana this afternoon. Storms in central/northern Indiana, where
surface winds remain backed, have shown signs of rotation. as these
storms continue to the east into Ohio, some increase in tornado and
damaging wind threat may materialize. WSR-88D and TDWR VAD profiles
in Ohio show enlarged low-level hodographs with very strong winds in
the lowest 2-3 km. The primary question this afternoon will be the
degree of surface-based destabilization that can occur into Ohio.
Cloud cover has been maintained across the state. However, some
clearing has occurred in southwestern Ohio where temperatures have
risen into the mid 50s F. Based on current observations and forecast
soundings, mid 50s F to near 60 F temperatures would be sufficient
for surface-based convection. Given the potential, a watch will need
to be considered this afternoon.

...Wendt/Gleason.. 02/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Y96d0-JJZZW-eOYiG9S4Kcpg-2bMAaJhZcoQnmSL4-9HFrurKN9CZzd_jDCEHGKKXONYRQRT=
b8sOU7MTjMl4wpbmcU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   38578332 38568378 38748484 39268527 39538531 40518507
            40558468 40218338 39538304 38978311 38578332=20


=3D =3D =3D
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