Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0205
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 27 2023 17:37:28

ACUS11 KWNS 271737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271737=20
INZ000-271930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Areas affected...central IN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 46...

Valid 271737Z - 271930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are gradually organizing in the open warm sector.=20
Shallow mesocyclones may increase in number over the next 1-2 hours.
A supercell tornado threat will probably accompany the
strongest/most persistent mesocyclones.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows low-level cloud erosion
across central IN and surface temperatures have warmed to near 60
deg near Muncie to 63 deg F in Columbus.  Surface dewpoints are in
the upper 50s and do not appear to be mixing (lowering) further.=20
The latest subjective surface mesoanalysis shows a corridor of
2.5-3.0 mb/hr pressure falls arcing from near Batesville north to
Muncie and into north-central IN near Grissom.  Expecting the
surface flow to remain relatively backed (southerly or
south-southeasterly), thereby maintaining large low-level hodographs
over central IN.

Given the weak buoyancy (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), updrafts are slow to
quickly organize.  However, gradual intensification of a few of the
developing storms into low-topped supercells is expected.  The
stronger and more persistent mesocyclones will pose some tornado
threat through the early to mid afternoon.

...Smith.. 02/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4pJ6s1ml8IZSPGDXpBAbe-d93NnwC7qReBcxt-DgguupmEfAsOklG9XN6sOnf92gvDB0NHbZu=
6PA1P6vx-YrEcIAwUY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39718692 40368629 40488565 40328530 39908517 39468544
            39238584 39248634 39468684 39718692=20


=3D =3D =3D
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