Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0204
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 27 2023 15:44:59

ACUS11 KWNS 271544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271544=20
INZ000-ILZ000-271645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Areas affected...far east-central IN...central and north-central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271544Z - 271645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The airmass is forecast to destabilize across central and
north-central IN late this morning through the mid afternoon.  There
is potential for a few low-topped mini supercells and an
accompanying risk for a couple of tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a stratus cloud shield
eroding from west to east across southwestern into west-central IN
as of 1530 UTC (1030am EST).  A potent mid-level low/cold pocket
over west-central IL will continue to move east during the day and
into the Wabash Valley by early afternoon.=20=20

Surface analysis shows a reservoir mid-upper 50s dewpoints across
eastern IL and western IN with temperatures warming into the lower
60s.  A composite of surface observation trends over the past 2
hours shows the greatest pressure falls over western IN (2 mb/hr)
and will likely aid in maintaining some backing of low-level flow
(surface winds 160 to 180 deg).  As a result, enlarged low-level
hodographs will be present across central IN.  With surface-based
destabilization expected as the low clouds erode (250-500 J/kg
MLCAPE), there exists a conditional environment favorable for
low-level updraft rotation and a tornado threat.

...Smith/Gleason/Grams.. 02/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6erxR6Gc3YB4LBj_ph4Hx4NzCdSnMuiw3vdDKCKcVzepVMvvWayre5R6H4Qm8SPciu6R5Lwop=
7UeUaSQ6EO4VODFkCc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40498770 40738629 40578520 40288485 39828487 39558507
            39298807 39638828 39998813 40498770=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.