Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0203
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 27 2023 14:47:23

ACUS11 KWNS 271447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271446=20
INZ000-ILZ000-271615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Areas affected...east-central IL...west-central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271446Z - 271615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The window of opportunity for surface-based
destabilization is small and relatively narrow across the Wabash
Valley, but convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows agitated convection
over east-central IL and a thunderstorm acquiring supercell
characteristics near Champaign.  Water-vapor imagery shows this
activity on the leading edge of a mid-level vorticity lobe
progressing east across IL and into western IN during the next few
hours.  The 12z Lincoln, IL raob showed -13.1 deg C at 500 mb.  The
RAP model 14z run for Champaign valid for 15z showed a 500 mb
temperature at -19 deg C.  The mid-level cold pocket and associated
differential thermal advection and slight boundary-layer heating
this morning, are resulting in a weakly unstable airmass across
eastern IL.  This narrow plume of a destabilizing warm sector will
gradually spread from west to east into parts of western IN over the
next few hours.  Enlarged hodographs imply a risk for updraft
rotation if a sustained/robust storm can develop.  Will monitor
convective trends for a low conditional risk for a tornado/large
hail threat.

...Smith/Gleason/Grams.. 02/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5DHgAM5kvkmcegH9n0lfaA6whO-n2grvMQKrkz731V0qwqbuzrZX2fIbUFxoTZ2lK9e_Or6Yw=
ALj_rYBmiyUGBm6ksU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40388873 40818848 40888768 40558719 40248709 39868736
            39758812 39938858 40388873=20


=3D =3D =3D
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