Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0202
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 27 2023 10:18:04

ACUS11 KWNS 271017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271017=20
CAZ000-271515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Areas affected...northern California

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 271017Z - 271515Z

SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy precipitation is expected to
continue to develop and spread inland across the Klamath Mountains
and northern Coastal Ranges, perhaps portions of the northern Sierra
Nevada, with snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour by 5-10 AM PST, if
not a bit earlier.

DISCUSSION...As another cold mid-level trough (including 500 mb
temps near or below -35 C) digs into the northern Pacific coast,
forcing for ascent along a frontal zone associated with an occluded
offshore cyclone has recently supported intensifying convective
development with embedded thunderstorms approaching the southern
Oregon/northern California coast.  Although it is not clear if
destabilization aided by cooling aloft will maintain thunderstorm
development, the remnant band of convection is forecast to gradually
spread inland of coastal areas, across the Klamath Mountains and
northern Coastal Ranges, perhaps portions of the northern Sierra
Nevada, by the 13-17Z time frame, if not before.

Coincident with this band of convection, forecast soundings indicate
lift becoming maximized in the cold mid-level layers (around -15 C)
most conducive to dendritic ice crystal growth.  Coupled with
orographic forcing aided by modest (30-40 kt) south-southwesterly
upslope flow, heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2+ inches per hour
appear likely for at least a few hours this morning, with snow
levels perhaps falling below 2000 feet.

...Kerr.. 02/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8fcqfWbyhs5FItoWh3TDofgfBVaWBaZ9OYIn7u9hrsPZ-JAhG9Qwapa05hVXbdLaPdpm_dTHX=
jYbCph6ltdCUTfPFe4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...STO...EKA...

LAT...LON   40492372 41762339 41782266 41722211 41222138 40522136
            40652207 40092275 38822277 40492372=20


=3D =3D =3D
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