Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 27 2023 08:30:00

ACUS03 KWNS 270829
SWODY3
SPC AC 270829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from northeast
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley.

....ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys...
An upper-level trough initially over the Great Basin on Wednesday is
expected to continue to amplify and dig southeastward over the
Southwest deserts. A potential low-amplitude disturbance or two may
precede this trough and influence parts of the Deep South, where
low-level moisture will likely be increasing through the lower/some
middle 60s F to the south of a southeastward-moving front across the
Ozarks/Ohio Valley.

Available 00z-based deterministic/ensemble models feature
considerable variability regarding the extent and more probable
zones of deep convection, owing to an increasingly broad warm sector
and somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent. The 00z NAM, in
particular, exhibits considerably more residual mid-level capping,
while recent GFS/ECMWF runs are much more aggressive with implied
storm development in a severe-favorable environment.

In general, increasing warm/moist advection and weakening convective
inhibition should lead at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development across a fairly broad west/southwest to east/northeast
regional corridor into Wednesday afternoon, and especially Wednesday
night. Strong deep-layer wind profiles with 50+ kt effective shear
will conditionally support some supercells capable of large hail,
with some potential for surface-based storms capable of wind damage
as well.

An upgrade to a categorical Slight Risk may be warranted as early as
the Day 2 time frame for portions of the region as forecast details
are refined.

...Guyer.. 02/27/2023

$$

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