Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0201 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 27 2023 07:44:13 ACUS11 KWNS 270744 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270743=20 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-270845- Mesoscale Discussion 0201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Areas affected...much of Missouri and adjacent portions of southeast Iowa...western Illinois...northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20 Valid 270743Z - 270845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms overspreading the region will continue pose a risk for at least localized severe wind gusts through the night. While the sporadic nature of this threat probably will preclude a severe weather watch issuance, trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...An intense, cyclonic mid-level jet (110+ kt around 500 mb) is forecast to continue rapidly propagating east-northeastward into and through the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Strengthening subsidence to the south and southwest of the speed maximum is now suppressing deep convective development to the southwest (roughly) of the Missouri/Kansas/Arkansas border vicinity. Pre-cold frontal lightning producing convection is being maintained on the leading edge of the large-scale mid-level ascent/cold core, which is forecast to rapidly spread across much Missouri and parts of adjacent Iowa and Arkansas into western Illinois through 11-12Z. While the boundary-layer across much of this region remains only modestly moist (rising through the 50s F), beneath a northeastward advecting warm layer around the 700 mb level, models do indicate some further moistening within the warm sector of the deep occluding cyclone is possible prior to the arrival of the cold front. Based on latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, strong forcing through the capping layer may continue to yield very weak boundary-layer destabilization just ahead of the convective line. It is not clear that this will be able to support much in the way of substantive intensification from what is ongoing now. However, given the intense nature of the mean lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields within which the convection is embedded (greater than 60 kt in the lowest 60 km AGL), the heavier precipitation cores probably will continue to aid the downward transfer of potentially damaging gusts to the surface. ...Kerr/Edwards.. 02/27/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Woxs76MxkmnnPEeP5m_McdFfI2CYw8TUC03xzchZJAFEeDU7BHYwRcG3E9l0u91H6kngky-Z= sk_KBDeXT7_zjZyVd8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX... EAX... LAT...LON 36739322 37549367 39789422 40689387 41139212 39478992 37118925 36429079 36739322=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .