Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0195
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 27 2023 01:36:17

ACUS11 KWNS 270136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270135=20
TXZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of west-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 270135Z - 270300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts and hail will be possible across
parts of west-central TX this evening. The severe threat is expected
to remain limited.

DISCUSSION...Convection has developed southward along the
eastward-advancing cold front into portions of west-central TX from
Stonewall to Scurry Counties. Stronger forcing for ascent will
remain focused to the north of this area. Nevertheless, convergence
along the front and MLCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg amid strong
vertical shear could support sporadic strong gust and isolated hail.
Given weaker forcing compared to areas to the north, boundary-layer
inhibition will likely preclude more widespread severe potential. A
watch is not anticipated at this time, but trends will be monitored
over the next couple of hours.

...Leitman/Thompson.. 02/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7xzlBsGiLQeh6WhfTsgMYRkjvdD5Zyawv7Cg319-pcpABEhG4QzH0T4O8H49A-qMar1BogwOE=
erET4wHdY-nHj6sUn8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32329911 32139922 32039953 31980034 32020090 32140128
            32330129 32720102 33260062 33400039 33459957 33389904
            33309891 32329911=20


=3D =3D =3D
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