Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0194
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 27 2023 01:02:59

ACUS11 KWNS 270102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270102=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern OK into southern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 270102Z - 270300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch downstream from Tornado Watch 43 will be
needed by 03z/9pm CST across portions of central/eastern Oklahoma.
Intense swaths of damaging gusts will be possible in addition to
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A line of intense severe thunderstorm and tornado
warned cells continues to solidify and approach the OK/TX border
this evening. Additional cells ahead of the line have already moved
into far northwest OK. This convection will shift east around 50-55
kt, moving outside of Tornado Watch 43 by 03z.=20

VWP data from KTLX and KFDR show a southerly low-level jet has
increased to 60-70 kt while southeasterly low-level winds continue
to transport better quality moisture northward. Dewpoints in the low
60s F are in place north of the Red River across southern OK to near
I-40, with mid-50s F into far northern OK. This will support MUCAPE
values around 500-1000 J/kg ahead of the line of convection. While a
stout elevated mixed layer is in place across the warm sector,
strong forcing along the front should diminish inhibition and
downward transport of intense midlevel winds is expected. In
addition to swaths of damaging gusts, enlarged low-level hodographs
evident in the 00z OUN RAOB and in regional VWPs indicated potential
for mesovortex/line-embedded circulations and tornadoes.

...Leitman/Thompson.. 02/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!90tkkwTivHBQRhd9KBhSP6nBjsy28sCSbNhTdUzZL8DkmPPJAYCQBZOToxjW_WSDbI3NWPAJe=
loVF0J-1b2xv7N_1aI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35549864 36199858 36919806 37029777 37079697 37009594
            36799554 36299543 34759569 34079598 33859666 33799742
            33889818 34089856 34619866 35549864=20


=3D =3D =3D
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