Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0191
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 26 2023 23:05:19

ACUS11 KWNS 262305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262305=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of the eastern OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

Valid 262305Z - 270030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase in organization and
intensity across the eastern TX and OK Panhandles into far western
OK over the next couple of hours. Swaths of damaging gusts greater
than 80 mph, a few tornadoes and hail are possible.

DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms over the TX and OK Panhandle
have recently begun to show an increase in organization and
intensity. This trend is anticipated to continue over the next 1-2
hours as the eastward-advancing cold front overtakes the dryline. As
this occurs, stronger ascent will focus thunderstorm development
within an environment characterized by intense vertical shear.
Instability remains limited ahead of the front where dewpoints are
in the mid 50s. However, upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints exist
across western North TX and southwest OK, and may result in greater
destabilization as convection approaches the OK/TX border.
Semi-discrete supercells will pose a threat for all hazards
(tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail).=20

Rapid upscale development into a surging line of storms is still
anticipated over the next couple of hours, with an attendant threat
for intense damaging gusts greater than 80 mph as convection
approaches western OK. Backed surface winds across western OK,
resulting in low-level flow orthogonal to linear convection also
will support mesovortex development within the line, and QLCS
tornadoes will be possible in addition to swaths of intense
straight-line winds.

...Leitman.. 02/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9WUPhz9EliVEbWLcvQ3Fm5bw-D2jeqGMyNSRCnOFxPFlssWX6sPxWJimQHX_7SEoFL_qp2rMU=
4oeUjsEZK83HeZXakA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34760180 36730144 36870102 36950080 36900021 36599984
            36089966 35279954 34529991 34250017 34170054 34140083
            34200118 34300149 34430173 34500177 34760180=20


=3D =3D =3D
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