Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0189
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 26 2023 20:36:34

ACUS11 KWNS 262036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262036 COR
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-262230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Areas affected...Southwest KS...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles...Western
OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 262036Z - 262230Z

CORRECTED TO INCREASE WATCH PROBABILITY

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including significant wind gusts over 80 mph, very large hail
greater than 2 inches in diameter, and tornadoes, are expected to
develop across the region this afternoon and evening. A Tornado
Watch will be needed within the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Significant air mass modification continues across the
southern Plains ahead of an intense upper low moving out of the
Southwest. Much of the eastern TX and OK Panhandles and western OK
have experienced dewpoint increases of 4 to 8 deg F over the past 3
hours. This modification is expected to continue as large-scale
forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching low increases,
likely resulting in thunderstorm initiation during the next hour or
two from southwest KS across the eastern OK and TX Panhandles and
into northwest TX.=20

Wind fields, which are already quite strong, are expected to further
strengthen as the system approaches. Current mesoanalysis estimates
the 0-6 km shear is already 70 kt, with forecast soundings
suggesting an increase to 85-90 kt is anticipated by 00Z. Forecast
hodographs also show robust low veering with height, supported by
50-60 kt flow around 1 km. Forecast soundings show surface to 500 m
storm-relative helicity is over 300 m2/s2 across the eastern TX and
OK Panhandles at 00Z.

These environmental conditions are very supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including significant wind gusts over
80 mph, very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter, and
tornadoes. Upscale growth into a linear convective line is
anticipated, with strong wind gusts and embedded tornadoes possible
once this transition occurs. A Tornado Watch will be needed in the
next hour or two to cover this potential.

...Mosier/Grams.. 02/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9pJKiyPGJRZI3GLnciyAglUJ4TZjT_AzOuIsxJzTmPxZZrNCFuLisSPbVKW1JrEDX62OC0wsz=
RrW5PTX4uwMPmbyJLE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36030178 37260160 37710105 37660023 37079977 36179954
            33759956 33150058 33410134 34080164 36030178=20


=3D =3D =3D
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