Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 26 2023 17:07:10

ACUS02 KWNS 261707
SWODY2
SPC AC 261705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
FROM ILLINOIS INTO OHIO...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce a few damaging gusts or brief tornadoes
Monday from parts of Illinois into Ohio and far northern Kentucky.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A potent shortwave trough will move from MO Monday morning toward
Lower MI by 00Z, as a surface low occludes from IA toward Lake MI.
The occluded front will translate east from IL into IN and OH, with
a warm front moving from northern KY into central OH.

The most favorable instability will be associated with the midlevel
cold pocket, with up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE possible over IL and IN
through 18Z. After this time, CAPE values will generally remain
below 250 J/kg near the warm front with mid 50s F dewpoints common.
An expansive area of strong shear will exist over the entire region,
with 850 mb winds around 60 kt aiding strong SRH values.

An arcing line of storms is expected to be ongoing ahead of the vort
max across central IL early Monday, and is forecast to move into IN
by 18Z. This activity may produce damaging winds or brief tornadoes
given sufficient low-level instability and strong shear. Storm mode
may remain linear, as these storms will be tied to the midlevel
cooling.

Farther east, additional cells may develop where heating occurs and
into the warm advection zone from KY into OH. Isolated supercells
may occur here, on the southern fringe of the midlevel vort max and
near the warm front where shear will be strong. Degree of
destabilization will be the main mitigating factor regarding tornado
threat.

...Jewell.. 02/26/2023

$$

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