Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 26 2023 16:31:20

ACUS01 KWNS 261631
SWODY1
SPC AC 261629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
A derecho is forecast with widespread damaging winds and embedded
swaths of significant severe gusts from 80-110 mph, centered on
parts of Oklahoma this evening into tonight. Embedded tornadoes are
anticipated as well, with the greatest potential for strong
(EF2-EF3) tornadoes across southwest Oklahoma this evening.

....Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...
Just-in-time moisture return from the western Gulf is still
anticipated ahead of a powerful shortwave trough ejecting from the
Southwest to the Lower MO Valley. 60+ F surface dew points remain
confined from the Piney Woods of east TX to the Concho Valley and
Edwards Plateau of west TX as of 16Z. Guidance continues to differ
with the northern extent of this richer moisture by evening in KS/OK
beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Widespread cloudiness is also
evident over much of the southern Great Plains, although clearing
should occur from west to east across the High Plains. The net
result should be a narrow plume of surface-based instability along
the dryline from southwest KS to west TX between 21-00Z.

Scattered convection will break out after 21Z along the dryline and
become supercellular towards 00Z given very favorably enlarged low
to mid-level hodographs. Further moistening into the evening should
result in the most favorable potential for supercell tornadoes in
southwest OK between 00-03Z, in addition to very large hail.
Convection will likely grow quickly upscale into a solid QLCS,
accelerating east-northeast with embedded supercells and
mesovortices. Extreme low-level shear profiles in conjunction with
strengthening of 700-mb winds to around 90 kts behind the line
should result in widespread severe wind gusts. Embedded swaths of
80-110 mph winds both straightline and rotating are likely, with
stronger speeds into the EF2 range possible, until the QLCS outpaces
the richer moisture in the OK/KS/MO border area overnight. Scattered
damaging winds from strong to severe gusts may linger through the
early morning across MO towards the Mid-MS Valley, despite little to
no buoyancy, given the intense low-level wind fields.

...Grams/Wendt.. 02/26/2023

$$

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