Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 25 2023 16:28:33

ACUS01 KWNS 251628
SWODY1
SPC AC 251627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2023

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Tennessee
Valley to southwestern Virginia, along the coast of southern
California, and from northeast Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas into
the Ozarks.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper low continues to progress southward off the southern CA
coast. This progression is expected to trend more eastward with
time, bringing the upper low across southern CA later tonight and
into southern NV by early tomorrow morning. Robust wind fields will
persist within the southern periphery of this system, with 100+ kt
at 500-mb noted throughout the period. Strong forcing for ascent and
cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this system, contributing
to the potential for thunderstorms across southern CA both within
the more banded convection ahead of the low and the more cellular
convection at it moves overhead.

Farther east, subtropical ridging centered over the FL Keys is
expected to persist, with moderate mid-level flow between this
ridge, the upper low farther west, and upper troughing farther
north. A robust jet streak exists from the Mid MS Valley into the
Northeast within this confluent westerly flow aloft. Broad ascent
within the right entrance region of this jet will contribute to
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the TN Valley and
Mid-South this afternoon.

Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible later tonight into
tomorrow morning across eastern OK amid the strengthening warm-air
advection and modest elevated buoyancy.

...Mosier/Thornton.. 02/25/2023

$$

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