Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 25 2023 09:52:00

AWUS01 KWNH 250951
FFGMPD
CAZ000-251450-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

Areas affected...Southermost CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 250950Z - 251450Z

Summary...A weakening atmospheric river will move inland across
southernmost CA early this morning and remain capable of hourly
rain totals of 0.5"+, with local amounts of 2-3", over the next
several hours which would be most problematic in burn scars.

Discussion...Divergence aloft remains significant to the east of a
cold low moving towards southernmost CA.  Low-level inflow from
the Pacific remains strong near its associated front.  MU CAPE
remains 100+ J/kg, but is showing some tendency towards weakening
within SPC mesoanalyses.  Precipitable water values of ~0.75" have
been sampled in the area by GPS data along the southern CA coast.=20
Inflow at 850 hPa is southerly at 45-50 kts per area VAD wind
profiles.

The 06z HREF shows high probabilities of 0.5"+ rainfall per hour
through 14z which is supported by the above ingredients before
generally fading thereafter.  This is coincident with a weakening
of the low-level flow into the region as the front and the
weakening atmospheric river moves inland into the Southwest.=20
Local amounts of 2-3" are expected per the available mesoscale
guidance.  Problems are expected most within area burn scars.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_IKNBh-V2eZ8lMrwRtRWg4ZzFwQ7qMBF7q89KN14CHFiP1OezDXgBgNoCZZSLA7QT7W8=
eSUK0Nq6UdeeISylns1hRww$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34511850 34291819 34231747 34101702 33781685=20
            33191671 32581643 32411675 32501718 33071745=20
            33531797 34121917 34401895=20

=3D =3D =3D
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