Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 25 2023 08:12:29

FOUS30 KWBC 250812
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 25 2023 - 12Z Sun Feb 26 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO BASINS...

The upper level low bringing heavy rainfall across much of
Southern California currently will begin to move eastward a bit
more quickly today. The low's eastward progress will begin its
process of rejoining the jet stream. The eastward movement of the
upper level forcing is causing the surface cold front to also move
eastward into the coast. Thus, the axis of heaviest rainfall will
move into the Los Angeles and San Diego basins this morning. The
rainfall into the Peninsular Ranges won't be nearly as heavy as
the rain ongoing across the Transverse Ranges. Nonetheless,
widespread 2-4 inch storm total rainfall is likely to cause
flooding problems in the areas south and east of Los Angeles,
which haven't gotten much rain thus far. Meanwhile, flash flooding
is ongoing north and west of Los Angeles as heavy rainfall
continues. Fortunately, once the cold front moves through, the
steadiest rains will shift eastward, leaving this area to contend
with scattered showers. Those showers will still be capable of
producing locally heavy rain, which may keep any localized
flooding going for longer, but most areas will be on a drying
trend going forward. Thus, expect the risk categories to lower
this afternoon as the rain coverage and overall intensity diminish.

No changes were made to the inherited forecast risk areas, as
there's good agreement that the rain shifting east will end the
threat for areas north and west earlier, and much of the Slight
Risk area got relatively little rainfall yesterday.

Wegman



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!83ydAd1_TmFLa8UfMUDu8jwu7PSnGeFVe1EpP8XhssNW=
A1K7ii4CsPLRf8ev3qR-7ghQdMCoM6Tmn0G3ZuKGlS9DlEA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!83ydAd1_TmFLa8UfMUDu8jwu7PSnGeFVe1EpP8XhssNW=
A1K7ii4CsPLRf8ev3qR-7ghQdMCoM6Tmn0G3ZuKGyBPwMFo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!83ydAd1_TmFLa8UfMUDu8jwu7PSnGeFVe1EpP8XhssNW=
A1K7ii4CsPLRf8ev3qR-7ghQdMCoM6Tmn0G3ZuKGNEur0Ho$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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