Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 25 2023 07:48:31

ACUS03 KWNS 250748
SWODY3
SPC AC 250747

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...KENTUCKY AND EASTERN
TENNESSEE...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging winds will be possible on
Monday across parts of the Ohio Valley southward into eastern
Tennessee.

....Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A highly progressive upper-level trough, along with an 80 to 100
knot mid-level jet, will move across the southern Plains Sunday
night, reaching the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. An
associated surface low will move northeastward into the southwestern
Great Lakes on Monday. A corridor of low to mid 50s F surface
dewpoints will be located ahead of the front, where weak instability
will develop by midday. Near the front, convection is expected to
form during the late morning, moving quickly eastward across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the afternoon. This convection
could organize into a fine line, potentially becoming severe.

NAM forecast soundings in the Ohio Valley around midday on Monday
suggest that SBCAPE will peak between 250 and 500 J/kg. Although the
instability will remain weak, a few lightning strikes will be
possible with low-topped convection. In addition, forecast soundings
in central and northern Kentucky show winds as high as 40 to 50
knots only 300 meters above the surface. For this reason, the
stronger cells may be able to produce isolated damaging winds. The
threat should persist through much of the afternoon as a narrow line
moves quickly eastward into the central Appalachian foothills. An
isolated wind-damage threat could also develop across parts of
eastern Tennessee, but the threat should drop off quickly with
southward extent due to the weak instability and a lack of
large-scale ascent.

...Broyles.. 02/25/2023

$$

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