Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0187
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 24 2023 15:00:24

ACUS11 KWNS 241500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241500=20
CAZ000-241900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

Areas affected...coastal Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241500Z - 241900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Low-topped storms ahead of and eventually along a cold
front may produce locally damaging gusts, waterspout or brief
tornado today over coastal portions of Santa Barbara and Ventura
counties.

DISCUSSION...Radar shows scattered low-topped convection just south
of Vandenberg AFB this morning, with area of stronger inbound
velocities noted on radar. The 12Z VBG sounding shows an impressive
hodograph with substantial shear. However, instability is the
primary mitigating factor. Modified soundings with current surface
observations yields around 200 J/kg SBCAPE, but slightly higher
values may occur with better theta-e just offshore with dewpoints up
to 50 F well offshore currently.

In the near term, a small uptick in storm intensity could occur
given the minor surface advection, and as the cold front intersects
coastal Santa Barbara County. Later in the day as the front
progresses eastward, lift will be enhanced, and this could provide a
focus for a severe gusts or brief tornado. However, little change in
overall instability is forecast, as minor theta-e advection may be
counteracted by warming temperatures at 700 mb.

...Jewell/Mosier.. 02/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-mXOsKQk_KxQ3bxEZ1N5BHI9mOyhvBk-wSP1ufHpet3KJIHtArZ7AxFn-HZoKbjNjpB26DIE5=
99MVDDygA9GlU3eXys$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...

LAT...LON   34281896 34021905 33981928 33981942 33921970 33852010
            33992047 34322053 34452045 34522037 34542012 34521976
            34481927 34421905 34281896=20


=3D =3D =3D
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