Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 24 2023 13:06:57

AWUS01 KWNH 241306
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-241800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
803 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2023

Areas affected...Central/Eastern AR...Extreme Northwest
MS...Southwest TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241302Z - 241800Z

SUMMARY...An axis of training showers and thunderstorms may
continue to favor a localized threat of flash flooding over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery shows a
relatively narrow band of showers and thunderstorms training over
the same area across portions of central and eastern AR and into
southwest TN. The convection is being favored by a modest axis of
elevated instability working in conjunction with a narrow axis of
stronger moisture convergence focused along an elevated front
situated in the 925/850 mb layer.

Some right-entrance region jet dynamics are also overlapping with
this corridor of convection and there is some evidence of a weak
jet-streak crossing the region which yielding at least some deeper
layer ascent and facilitating convective sustenance along the
aforementioned elevated frontal axis.

The PWs are running up around 1.25 inches, and some of the
rainfall rates have been occasionally getting up over 1 inch/hour.
The 06Z NAM-conest tends to have the better overall convective
footprint compared to radar for the time being, and does suggest
locally another 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible going
through 18Z with isolated heavier amounts.

Given the orientation of the convection with the deeper layer
flow, some additional localized pockets of flash flooding cannot
be ruled out at least for a few more hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5qhRjHbswBnmsJgc6tGvSAmTT87G4FRk9hfwKiMJjVVEIaON8KHgkQym4zSiBOgZXOtq=
HAgJvIoXt9IwdZ8gZZjeMFA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35438930 35068922 34739029 34419190 34329285=20
            34509314 34839298 35329107=20

=3D =3D =3D
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