Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 24 2023 19:56:38 ACUS01 KWNS 241956 SWODY1 SPC AC 241955 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ....SUMMARY... Locally damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado are possible over parts of coastal southern California today. ....Discussion... No changes are being included in the current outlook. While any risk for severe weather in coastal southern California is very limited at this point, a very weakly rotating storm or two have been observed offshore over the past hours -- though weakening as they approach the coast. Still, a stronger wind gust or very brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon. ...Goss.. 02/24/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023/ ....Synopsis... A deep upper low continues to drop southward off the CA coast. This gradual southward progression is forecast to persist throughout much of the period, before pivoting more southeastward early tomorrow morning. This progression is expected to result in the low being centered about 100-120 mi off the central CA coast by 12Z Saturday. Strong westerly/southwesterly flow currently stretches from central/southern CA across the central Plains and through the Great Lakes and Northeast. This flow is expected to trend more zonal east of the Rockies throughout the day, as ridging builds across most of the western CONUS ahead of the upper low. Additionally, subtropical ridging centered over south FL/Bahamas should persist throughout period while gradually drifting westward. A cold front extends from far southern NC west-southwestward across central portions of GA, AL, and MS. Modest warm-air advection and weak low-level convergence will contribute to showers and isolated thunderstorms north of the front from this morning into the early afternoon. Some additional storms are possible near the front across GA and southern SC this afternoon/evening. ....Coastal Southern CA... Lightning was observed about an hour ago within a deeper convective core over northern coastal Santa Barbara County CA. Sporadic lightning flashes will remain possible this morning into the afternoon, mainly over coastal portions of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties ahead of the primary frontal band. VTX VAD profiles continue to sample low-level veering with height that supports rotation within any more robust, long-lived updrafts. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #197, these low-topped storms ahead of and eventually along a cold front may produce locally damaging gusts, waterspout or a brief tornado. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .