Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 24 2023 09:55:58 ACUS48 KWNS 240955 SWOD48 SPC AC 240954 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Monday/Day 4... An upper-level trough and an associated 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet, are forecast to move quickly east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will likely increase surface dewpoints into the 50s F across much of the region. Along the moist axis, weak instability should develop. Any convection that can form ahead of the upper-level trough will be supported by strong large-scale ascent and lift associated with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The potential for convection is first expected to develop near the Mississippi River around daybreak with convection moving quickly eastward toward the Appalachians by midday. This convection is forecast to remain low-topped and be embedded in a strong wind field. For this reason, damaging wind gusts will be possible, mainly due to downdrafts embedded in the strong surface pressure gradient. A 15 percent area has been added to parts of eastern Kentucky and eastern Tennessee, where the potential for severe winds appears to be greatest. ....Tuesday/Day 5 to Friday/Day 8.. A cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Coast states on Tuesday, as a shortwave trough moves through the Rockies. Moisture return on Tuesday is forecast to remain largely absent ahead of this trough, suggesting the potential for severe thunderstorms will remain low. On Wednesday, some moisture is forecast to advect northward into the Gulf Coast states, where isolated to scattered convection will be possible during the afternoon. However, model solutions suggest that instability will remain weak, limiting the severe weather potential. On Wednesday night into Thursday, continued moisture advection should increase surface dewpoints up into the 60s F from Georgia into the Carolinas. Although thunderstorms will be possible near the axis of a low-level jet, the weak instability that is currently forecast could be problematic. From Thursday night into Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this feature from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward to Florida. Although a severe threat may develop across parts of the region, predictability at this range remains low. ...Broyles.. 02/24/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .