Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 24 2023 08:31:04 ACUS03 KWNS 240831 SWODY3 SPC AC 240830 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west-central Texas northward into southern and eastern Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. ....Southern and Central Plains... A highly progressive upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday. In the base of the system, an 85 to 105 knot mid-level jet will quickly move into the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the trough, a tongue of maximized low-level moisture will advect northward into west-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Weak instability is forecast to develop along and to the west of the moist axis, where surface dewpoints should only reach the 50s F during the afternoon. Surface temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s F. This should result in isolated convective development during the late afternoon along a dryline in west Texas northward into western Kansas ahead of a surface low. These storms are forecast to move east-northeastward across southern Kansas, Oklahoma and northwest Texas during the evening. NAM forecast soundings at 03Z on Monday have weak instability in place across the moist sector with peak SBCAPE near 500 J/kg. In addition, wind speeds increase from near 15 knots at the surface to about 70 knots at 850 mb. This strong speed shear should be favorable for supercell development. Although mid-level lapse rates will be steep enough for isolated large hail, the threat will likely remain somewhat isolated, due to a late afternoon and early evening capping inversion. The cap is expected to weaken by mid evening. This, combined with a strengthening low-level jet, should allow for robust convective development. The most favorable area for organized severe storms will be from northwest Texas extending northeastward into north-central Oklahoma. In addition to a threat for large hail, wind damage will also be possible. The wind-damage threat should be maximized with the strongest of storms during the evening. The threat could linger into the overnight if a severe convective cluster can remain organized. ...Broyles.. 02/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .