Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 24 2023 05:46:36

ACUS01 KWNS 240546
SWODY1
SPC AC 240545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may occur on Friday over parts of coastal and
central California as well as portions of the Gulf States.

....Discussion...

Large-scale height rises are forecast for much of the CONUS Friday
as upper ridging remains anchored near the FL Straits and an upper
low drops south off the CA Coast. In the absence of any meaningful
short waves, weak warm advection, and convergence near a frontal
zone, will provide some assistance for weak convection across the
Gulf States. Modified Gulf air mass resides across lower latitudes
from the upper TX Coast to coastal Carolinas. Forecast soundings
suggest weak buoyancy will be maintained along a corridor from
southern AR to the SC Atlantic Coast where several hundred J/kg
MUCAPE are expected. The primary limiting factors for lightning with
this activity are the poor lapse rates and weak forcing.

Across CA, upper low is forecast to settle south during the period,
remaining well off the southern CA Coast by 25/12z. Coldest
mid-level temperatures, and steeper lapse rates, will also remain
over the Pacific; though, eastern influence of this feature should
affect mostly coastal regions where marine air will enhance buoyancy
a bit. Forecast soundings suggest a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE will be
noted early north of VBG, likely adequate for a few flashes of
lighting with the strongest updrafts. Low-topped convection is also
expected to develop along the southern CA Coast Friday afternoon as
some boundary-layer heating allows surface temperatures to warm into
the mid 50s. Forecast soundings exhibit wind profiles that would
favor rotating updrafts, and while lightning may be sparse with this
activity, a low-topped supercell or two could evolve.  Will monitor
this area for signs of increased buoyancy and some severe threat in
later updates.

...Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/24/2023

$$

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