Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0185
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 23 2023 23:55:09

ACUS11 KWNS 232355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232354=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-240400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of Upstate New York into Vermont...New
Hampshire...and Massachusetts

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 232354Z - 240400Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, along with an occasional wintry mix, should
continue into the the evening hours across portions of New England.
Occasional bouts of ice accretion rates of 0.06 in/3 hrs are
possible in spots.

DISCUSSION...A 1010 mb surface low continues to traverse the Hudson
Valley while advancing to the Atlantic seaboard as an impressive
150+ kt 300 mb jet streak overspreads northern New England,
encouraging deep-layer ascent across Upstate NY, where a shield of
moderate precipitation has already developed. Current surface
observations indicate some light ice glazing has already begun
across portions of New England, with an expected upward trend in
heavier ice accretion rates expected into the evening hours.

The approach of the aforementioned, intense upper jet streak is
promoting a low-level response in the form of strong 925-850 mb
warm-air advection across parts of New England, contributing to both
deep-layer ascent and near/above freezing low-level temperatures
overspreading below-freezing surface temperatures. While surface
temperatures may approach the freezing mark in some locations
tonight, the surface should remain cold enough to support some ice
accretion during the heavier bouts of precipitation. The 12Z HREF
guidance indicates that the best chance for .06 in/3 hr or greater
ice accretion rates would be from east-central NY into MA, where the
deepest layer of above-freezing low-level temperatures should
reside. Farther north into northern New England and in the higher
terrain areas, a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet is also
possible. Either way, potentially hazardous travel conditions are
expected across much of central New England now into the Midnight
(EST) time frame.

...Squitieri.. 02/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!80YbjNv8zoxndogQbqyPgw8EbU4pYO5nLFfjkJwh1EgoCwqZ_zc0CnjwJ-mV0W1ZCnBpZP2wi=
ncE2NIJxVncQp1jrHw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43917585 43977583 44317463 44337289 44117170 43697101
            43077071 42467078 42177125 42107231 42117296 42357380
            42517427 42907519 43227584 43917585=20


=3D =3D =3D
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