Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 24 2023 00:38:11

ACUS01 KWNS 240038
SWODY1
SPC AC 240036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

....01z Update...

No changes are warranted from previous forecast.

Dominant upper ridge centered near south FL will maintain moist
onshore trajectories across the Gulf States. However, in the absence
of meaningful short-wave activity, weak low-level flow/convergence
will likely inhibit more than isolated-scattered, mostly weak,
showers from portions of northern MS into the southern Appalachians.
A few flashes of lightning may accompany the deepest updrafts.

Across the western US, strong upper trough is located near the CA
Coast. Very cold mid-level temperatures, low freezing levels, and
steep lapse rates are noted immediately ahead of this feature. 00z
sounding at OAK samples this environment well with around 300 J/kg
SBCAPE. Even REV exhibits almost 200 J/kg SBCAPE despite a surface
temperature of 25F, as 500mb temperature is -36C. Scattered showers
will persist ahead of the trough tonight and lightning may be noted
with the strongest updrafts.

...Darrow.. 02/24/2023

$$

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