Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 23 2023 20:24:27

FOUS30 KWBC 232024
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Feb 23 2023 - 12Z Fri Feb 24 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 24 2023 - 12Z Sat Feb 25 2023

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GREATER LOS ANGELES METRO AREA OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

Heavy to excessive rainfall is expected to develop over portions
of Southern California on Friday as a deep and very anomalous low
makes its way south along the California coast.  The flow aloft
becomes increasingly difluent aloft while low level winds become
directed more normal to the coast which results in decent moisture
transport on Friday and Friday night. This results in a ribbon of
subtropical moisture to round the trough so that it impacts almost
perpendicular to the Transverse Ranges and LA metro region of
southern California for the bulk of the forecast period. The axis
of heaviest rainfall and the potential for rainfall rates between
0.5-1.0" per hour is expected to gradually slide eastward by the
latter half of Friday and peak on Friday night near the San
Gabriel
and San Bernardino mountains and down to the coastal areas of
southern California before the upper low makes its way inland.=20
Most guidance depicts the potential for 3 to 5 inches of rainfall
with isolated amounts approaching 7 inches throughout the
elevations that remain below the freezing level during the
entirety of the event. Snow levels will be quite low compared to
normal, starting below 3000 feet but rising up to as high as
4000-5000 feet during the period with the most intense
precipitation rates. Given few changes in the large-scale forcing
and consistent placement/magnitude of the QPF...no changes were
made to the excessive risk areas issued previously.

Bann


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4hxjqccz_B6Cl7ezYxvFSYErvyH0QCaNINftY8wk3zUE=
p1LbCB2KdA1cvHNquOBGK3Odl8s4mBnQ1h5Oku77dcpJG48$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4hxjqccz_B6Cl7ezYxvFSYErvyH0QCaNINftY8wk3zUE=
p1LbCB2KdA1cvHNquOBGK3Odl8s4mBnQ1h5Oku77dbcZqLQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4hxjqccz_B6Cl7ezYxvFSYErvyH0QCaNINftY8wk3zUE=
p1LbCB2KdA1cvHNquOBGK3Odl8s4mBnQ1h5Oku77hZ17gvM$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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