Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 23 2023 16:32:10

ACUS01 KWNS 231632
SWODY1
SPC AC 231630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians...
Weak height rises are expected regionally through tonight. Weak but
persistent warm/moist advection may influence thunderstorms across
the Tennessee Valley toward the southern Appalachians, with a few
thunderstorms also possible in the more immediate vicinity of an
east/southeastward-advancing cold front moving into/across western
portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, where thermodynamic profiles are
marginally supportive of lightning flashes today. While deep-layer
shear and weak buoyancy would be conditionally favorable,
diminishing low-level shear combined with the nebulous forcing for
ascent and relatively warm/dry mid-levels suggest the threat of
severe thunderstorms is low.

....Coastal Central/Southern California...
Primary vort max off the Washington/Oregon coast, embedded within
the deep western CONUS upper trough, should gradually move south to
just off the northern California coast through 12Z Friday. While
surface dew points will be initially low from the 30s to low 40s F,
an increase into the mid 40s is possible near the coast by early
Friday. This combined with strengthening low-level winds may be
sufficient for a few weakly rotating cells and locally strong
convective gusts from low-topped convection near the end of the
period. However, organized severe storms currently appear unlikely.

...Guyer/Weinman.. 02/23/2023

$$

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