Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 23 2023 12:22:45

ACUS01 KWNS 231222
SWODY1
SPC AC 231221

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Friday.

....AL/MS...
Trailing portion of a weakening low-level warm conveyor should be
the focus for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms into this
afternoon across parts of the Southeast. Where mid to upper 60s
surface dew points are present in MS/AL, pockets of modest
boundary-layer heating should support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, despite
poor mid-level lapse rates and weak height rises. While deep-layer
shear would be conditionally favorable, diminishing low-level shear
combined with the nebulous forcing for ascent and relatively
warm/dry mid-levels suggest the threat of severe thunderstorms is
negligible.

....Coastal Southern CA...
Primary vort max off the WA/OR coast, embedded within the deep
western CONUS upper trough, should gradually move south to just off
the northern CA coast through 12Z Fri. While surface dew points will
be initially cool from the 30s to low 40s, an increase into the mid
40s is most probable around the Point Conception portion of the
coast early Friday. This combined with strengthening low-level winds
may be sufficient for weakly rotating cells and locally strong
convective gusts from low-topped convection near the end of the
period.

...Grams/Gleason.. 02/23/2023

$$

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