Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 23 2023 06:29:59

ACUS03 KWNS 230629
SWODY3
SPC AC 230629

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Saturday over the contiguous United
States.

....Synopsis...
An upper low will move east across southern portions of CA on
Saturday, providing steep lapse rates aloft.  This wave will
progress east into AZ overnight, with a leading 100+ kt midlevel
speed max ahead of it. To the east, heights will rise over the
Plains, with an upper high over the Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain stable due to high
pressure. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will linger across the Gulf
Coast states, with an east-west boundary making marginal northward
progress. While a few showers may occur north of the boundary from
TX to the Carolinas, little uncapped CAPE will be present to support
thunderstorms.

Sporadic lightning flashes may occur however in association with the
cold upper low over southern CA, where 500 mb temperatures will
reach below -30 C. Here, a few convective showers may develop within
the arcing zone of ascent with the aid of southerly upslope winds,
but very weak instability will preclude severe chances.

...Jewell.. 02/23/2023

$$

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