Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0181
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 23 2023 01:59:31

ACUS11 KWNS 230159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230159=20
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-230800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern New York into New
England

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 230159Z - 230800Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around an inch per hour are possible
within the Adirondack vicinity into parts of New Hampshire and
Vermont. South of the heavier snowfall, freezing rain and sleet will
be possible.

DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough within the Upper
Midwest will continue to move northeast this evening. This feature
is expected to lose some amplitude/definition with time. Based on
KBUF and KTYX radar imagery, moderate to heavy snow is developing in
the vicinity of Lake Ontario as warm advection aloft increases with
the approach of the shortwave. The expectation is for this band of
precipitation to continue east and north over the next several
hours. Snowfall rates of around an inch per hour (with locally
higher rates up to 1.5 inches per hour) will be possible from
roughly the Adirondack region into New Hampshire/Vermont. Farther
south, surface observations and dual-pol analysis show a transition
zone to a mix of freezing rain and sleet. This transition zone
should shift east and north along with the strongest zone of warm
advection.

...Wendt.. 02/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6K3fi_jdDDr1V-MX8VW9GHbwj_cx1OFJskA0AEXBXWRjUZpgBpGV2C7aoNtSAuZCYNHN04HNz=
PdLaCArPX1w37eBqfs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44097607 44657493 44857273 44717148 44217105 43197151
            42817168 42427230 42467431 42697581 43007712 43357724
            44097607=20


=3D =3D =3D
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