Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 23 2023 00:42:43

ACUS01 KWNS 230042
SWODY1
SPC AC 230041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight.

....01z Update...

Remnants of earlier strong/severe convection are spreading across
the lower OH Valley this evening. This activity is associated with a
pronounced mid-level short-wave trough that is currently ejecting
across IL. Updraft intensities have waned considerably due to poor
instability, and convection should remain weak the rest of the
period. Even so, a few flashes of lightning may accompany some of
this activity, primarily within the warm advection zone from
northwest OH into upstate NY.

Upstream, very cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates are
noted north of the jet from the Sierra Nevada Mountains into the
Great Basin. 00z soundings from VEF, REV, and OAK all exhibit
surface-based buoyancy, albeit weak with very low freezing levels. A
few flashes of lightning may be noted with the strongest updrafts in
this environment.

...Darrow.. 02/23/2023

$$

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