Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0178
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 22 2023 20:23:45

ACUS11 KWNS 222023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222023=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Areas affected...Western TN and northern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222023Z - 222200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible across western Tennessee
this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection is ongoing near the Mississippi
River, as sampled by WSR-88D radar. Ahead of this line, skies have
cleared, which has resulted in temperatures into the upper 70s and
dewpoints mixing into the upper 50s. Regional VWPs show strong wind
profiles with effective bulk shear of 35-40 kts and 50-60 kts of
flow at 1 km ARL. Mesoanalysis and short-term RAP profiles indicate
that buoyancy is relatively meager, due to warm mid-level
temperatures. The meager buoyancy will limit severe potential, with
a few damaging wind gusts expected due to the stronger low-level
flow. While trends will be monitored, a watch is not anticipated.

...Supinie/Guyer.. 02/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Nz8sBLCBYPY4tjiioinUzUAxo9zQmYTxyolUZvmhNRfLTWxSqT7WDIZvhzfnKeJB44TOdIDB=
vM19E7aS7yYZO7UWXk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34218948 34118973 34019023 34219058 34519067 34909047
            35549014 36238957 36508908 36538875 36308828 35688810
            35018820 34478898 34218948=20


=3D =3D =3D
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